AGP Executive Report

Climate Risk Watch: The WMO says El Niño is now likely to form (80% chance before September, rising to 90% later), with knock-on effects across the Pacific—more extreme heat and shifting rainfall patterns on top of climate change. Marine Life & Food Security: A new analysis on “Super El Niño” warns that stronger-than-usual warming can disrupt plankton and upwelling, destabilizing fisheries and coastal livelihoods. Forestry for Resilience: FAO-backed training in Fiji helped Samoa’s forestry officers strengthen sustainable teak and pine production, including seed propagation and harvesting methods to better handle climate and ecosystem pressures. Water Pollution Alert: Officials report about 8,000 gallons of sewage spilled near Tarawa Boulevard in North Carolina after manholes overflowed; crews added lime and collected samples as regulators review. Tourism Data for Sustainability: SPTO and Niue Tourism released the 2024 International Visitor Survey to guide more resilient, strategic tourism growth across Pacific destinations including Kiribati. Fisheries Governance: The WTO’s Fisheries Subsidies deal is framed as an environmental win, but progress on the next phase (“Fish 2”) could stall if key countries delay. Pacific Media Capacity: SPREP is preparing a regional workshop to boost Pacific journalists’ ability to report weather and climate stories for community resilience.

Climate Resilience Forestry: FAO reports Samoa forestry officers completed hands-on training in Suva on sustainable teak and pine production and management, building seed propagation and harvesting skills to better handle climate change, extreme weather, and ecosystem pressures. Regional Tourism & Data: Fiji hosted SPTE 2026 for the third time, bringing Pacific tourism businesses together in Nadi, while SPTO and Niue shared findings from the 2024 International Visitor Survey to guide more resilient, sustainable tourism planning across Kiribati and other Pacific states. El Niño Outlook: The WMO says there’s an 80% chance El Niño forms before September (rising to 90% later), warning of wider impacts like heavier rainfall in some regions and drier conditions elsewhere—on top of climate change risks. Marine Life & Fisheries: A new look at Super El Niño explains how extreme sea warming can disrupt plankton productivity, destabilize marine food chains, and hit fisheries and coastal livelihoods. Waste & Water Safety: Officials say about 8,000 gallons of sewage spilled at Camp Lejeune after manholes overflowed near a wastewater lift station, with water samples collected and environmental review underway. Ocean Governance: A reminder that the WTO Fisheries Subsidies deal is in force, but progress on the next phase could stall if key countries don’t move forward—important for protecting Pacific marine resources.

Sewage & Water Safety: About 8,000 gallons of sewage spilled from manholes at Camp Lejeune after blockages in the collection system overflowed into the Northeast Creek, with crews clearing lines, adding lime, and collecting water samples while the state environmental agency reviews the incident. Climate Outlook (El Niño): The WMO warns an El Niño is likely to emerge soon, with an 80% chance before September and rising odds later in the year—raising risks of heat, drought, and heavy rainfall across parts of the Pacific and beyond. Pacific Resilience & Media: SPREP is backing a regional workshop to help Pacific media report weather and climate stories for community preparedness, including coverage linked to upcoming meteorology meetings in Tonga. Marine Life & Food Security: A look at “Super El Niño” explains how extreme warming can disrupt plankton, fisheries, and coastal livelihoods—highlighting why adaptive fisheries management matters. Kiribati & Governance: Kiribati is hosting a Pacific anti-corruption conference, framing integrity and transparency as essential for protecting climate and development funding. Tourism Data (Kiribati in focus): SPTO and Niue released Pacific visitor survey findings under a regional data initiative that includes Kiribati, aiming to support more resilient, sustainable tourism planning.

Climate Watch: The WMO says there’s an 80% chance El Niño forms before September (rising to 90% from July–November), with impacts that can mean heavier rain in some places and drought/heat risk in others—an extra stress on already climate-changed Pacific islands, including Kiribati. Tourism & Sustainability: The Pacific Tourism Organisation and Niue Tourism Office released the 2024 International Visitor Survey (via New Zealand-funded PTDI), highlighting visitor sources and preferences to help shape more resilient, sustainable tourism planning across Pacific destinations like Kiribati. Media for Resilience: SPREP is backing a regional media capacity push to help Pacific journalists report weather and climate for community preparedness, linking reporting skills with upcoming Pacific meteorology meetings in Tonga. Marine Protection: A new World Trade Organization Fisheries Subsidies deal (Fish 1) is already in force, targeting IUU fishing and overfished stocks—while the next phase (Fish 2) could be weakened if key countries stall, with big stakes for Pacific fisheries and livelihoods. Climate Mobility & Rights: A new analysis links climate change to statelessness risks, arguing governments must activate protections as climate-driven movement becomes more real.

Pacific Resilience & Security: Australia and Japan agreed to prioritize supply chains, energy, critical minerals, trade and security in Canberra, but climate change was notably left off the agenda—despite Pacific leaders calling it their biggest security threat. Urban Planning for Climate Impacts: A new look at Pacific SIDS warns that fast-growing cities are outpacing planning and governance, leaving communities exposed to cyclones, floods, sea-level rise, saltwater intrusion and land subsidence—so resilience has to be built as a whole system, not a “shelf” plan. Climate Reporting Capacity: SPREP is backing a regional media workshop in September to help Pacific journalists amplify weather and climate stories for resilience, including coverage tied to key meteorology meetings in Tonga. Climate Mobility & Statelessness: A Tuvalu-focused analysis highlights how climate-related migration is already happening under the Australia–Tuvalu Falepili Treaty, and argues governments must urgently address statelessness risks as mobility increases. Marine Life & Fair Fishing: The WTO fisheries subsidies deal is hailed as an environmental win for Pacific island fishers, but warns that the next phase (“Fish 2”) could be undermined if India, Indonesia and the United States stall talks. Tourism Data for Kiribati: The Pacific Tourism Organisation and Kiribati’s tourism authority released the Kiribati International Visitor Survey 2025 report, estimating tourism’s 2025 economic impact at about USD 12.8 million and aiming to guide evidence-based marketing and development.

Deep-Sea Mining & Geopolitics: A new explainer details how a China deep-sea mining fleet investigation found most mining-linked research time spent outside seabed mining areas, raising both environmental concerns and security questions about dual-use ambitions. Climate Mobility & Rights: A Pacific-focused analysis links climate change to statelessness risks, arguing governments must urgently activate protections as climate-driven movement becomes real. Fisheries Subsidies Deal: The WTO’s Fisheries Subsidies Agreement is framed as an environmental win for Pacific marine resources, but warns that the next “Fish 2” phase could be undermined if key countries stall talks. Kiribati Tourism Data: Kiribati’s International Visitor Survey 2025 report (via SPTO) shares tourism spending and satisfaction snapshots to support evidence-based planning. Pacific Media for Resilience: SPREP backs a regional media workshop to boost weather and climate reporting capacity across Pacific newsrooms. Super El Niño on Oceans: A fisheries-focused piece explains how Super El Niño can disrupt plankton productivity and destabilize marine food chains, threatening coastal livelihoods. Quad Ports in Fiji: Australia, Japan, India and the US plan port infrastructure in Fiji, with observers flagging potential US-China flashpoints.

Pacific Climate Media Training: SPREP is backing a regional workshop to boost Pacific journalists’ ability to report on weather and climate, with selected reporters covering Tonga’s Pacific Meteorological Council and Ministers meetings—aimed at helping communities prepare for floods, cyclones and droughts. Climate Mobility & Statelessness: A new analysis flags how climate-driven displacement is already happening in the Pacific, but warns that risks like loss of nationality and statelessness are still too often overlooked in adaptation and risk-reduction planning. Fisheries Protection at the WTO: The WTO’s Fisheries Subsidies deal is hailed as a marine win, but the next phase (“Fish 2”) could stall if India, Indonesia and the United States don’t move forward—threatening progress against harmful subsidies and IUU fishing. Kiribati Tourism Data: Kiribati’s International Visitor Survey 2025 report (with SPTO and New Zealand support) estimates tourism’s 2025 economic impact at about USD 12.8 million and maps visitor spending and satisfaction. Regional Anti-IUU Patrols: Operation Tui Moana 2026 wrapped up after three weeks of coordinated surveillance across multiple Pacific EEZs, including Kiribati, to deter illegal fishing and other maritime crimes. Nuclear Justice Push: Kiribati and the Marshall Islands renewed calls at the UN for nuclear justice, citing the ongoing health and community impacts of South Pacific nuclear testing.

Climate mobility & rights: A new analysis links climate change to statelessness risks in the Asia Pacific, arguing governments must urgently activate measures to identify and prevent nationality loss as Pacific climate displacement becomes real. Australia–Japan ties & Pacific security: A commentary on Australia-Japan cooperation notes climate change wasn’t on the agenda, even as Pacific small states call it their biggest security threat. Fisheries protection at risk: The WTO Fisheries Subsidies deal is praised as an environmental win, but warns that India, Indonesia and the United States could stall the next phase, weakening safeguards for overfished stocks and IUU fishing. Kiribati tourism data: The Pacific Tourism Organisation and Kiribati’s tourism authority released the 2025 International Visitor Survey, reporting visitor spending and perceptions to guide more evidence-based tourism growth. Regional enforcement for marine life: Operation Tui Moana 2026 wrapped up after three weeks of coordinated surveillance with Kiribati among participating countries, targeting IUU fishing and maritime crimes. Nuclear justice push: Kiribati and the Marshall Islands renewed calls at the UN for nuclear justice, detailing ongoing health harms from past testing in the Pacific. Kiribati anti-corruption spotlight: An op-ed backs Kiribati’s leadership in hosting the Pacific Regional Conference on Anti-Corruption, warning corruption can “sink” climate and development funding. Super El Niño impacts: A report explains how Super El Niño disrupts marine ecosystems and fisheries, threatening food security and livelihoods across coastal islands.

Tourism & small business: Fiji’s tourism trade push is drawing scrutiny in Parliament over whether regional spending is delivering measurable support for smaller island enterprises, even as the South Pacific Tourism Exchange 2026 reports record participation and a new Women in Business Showcase. Climate impacts on fisheries: A new look at Super El Niño warns that extreme warming can disrupt plankton productivity, destabilize marine food chains, and hit coastal livelihoods—an issue that matters for Kiribati’s food security. Regional infrastructure & geopolitics: India, the US, Australia and Japan (Quad) plan port infrastructure in Fiji, raising questions about Pacific priorities and whether ports could become another flashpoint in US-China rivalry. Fisheries protection: Pacific nations completed Operation Tui Moana 2026, a coordinated surveillance push against illegal fishing across multiple EEZs, with Kiribati among participants. Kiribati tourism data: The Pacific Tourism Organisation and Kiribati’s Tourism Authority released the Kiribati International Visitor Survey 2025 Annual Report, detailing visitor spending and satisfaction to guide greener, evidence-based tourism. Nuclear justice: Kiribati renewed calls for nuclear justice at the UN, highlighting the ongoing human cost of South Pacific nuclear testing.

Pacific Climate & Fisheries: A new analysis warns that Super El Niño can sharply disrupt marine ecosystems and fisheries by warming seas, weakening upwelling, and cutting plankton productivity—raising risks for coastal food security and livelihoods. Regional Security & Infrastructure: The Quad (India, US, Australia, Japan) says it will jointly develop port infrastructure in Fiji, starting with Suva and Lautoka—an initiative that could also inflame US-China rivalry. Fisheries Protection in Action: Pacific nations completed Operation Tui Moana 2026, a three-week regional surveillance push (including Kiribati) to deter illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing and other maritime crimes across EEZs and nearby high seas. Kiribati & Nuclear Justice: Kiribati renewed calls for nuclear justice at the UN, detailing the human cost of South Pacific nuclear testing and urging accountability for lasting health impacts. Tourism Data for Planning: Kiribati’s international visitor survey report (2025) was released, tracking visitor spending and satisfaction to support more evidence-based tourism development.

Super El Niño and fisheries: A new report warns that extreme Super El Niño conditions can disrupt plankton productivity, weaken upwelling, and destabilize marine food chains—hurting fish stocks, coastal livelihoods, and food security, with major implications for island nations like Kiribati. Fisheries governance in the Pacific: Pacific countries have wrapped up Operation Tui Moana 2026, a three-week regional surveillance push to deter illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing and other maritime crimes across multiple EEZs, with Kiribati among participating states. Fisheries subsidies at the WTO: The WTO’s Fisheries Subsidies Agreement is hailed as an environmental win, but the next phase (“Fish 2”) could stall if key countries drag their feet—raising the risk of continued harmful subsidies that drive overcapacity and overfishing. Kiribati tourism data: The Pacific Tourism Organisation and Kiribati’s Tourism Authority released the 2025 International Visitor Survey, estimating tourism’s 2025 economic impact at USD 12.8 million and offering fresh insights for greener, evidence-based tourism planning. Nuclear justice: Kiribati renewed calls for nuclear justice at the UN, detailing the ongoing human cost of 1957–1962 nuclear testing on Kiritimati, including severe illness and deaths. Regional security and tech: Reporting from the Solomon Islands highlights backlash to a Chinese policing surveillance system, raising questions about data collection and limits on external security models in the Pacific.

Climate & Fisheries: A new analysis warns that Super El Niño can sharply disrupt marine ecosystems and fisheries, with warmer seas, weaker upwelling, and lower plankton productivity feeding into fish-stock declines and knock-on impacts for coastal food security and livelihoods. Regional Fisheries Enforcement: Pacific nations wrapped up Operation Tui Moana 2026, a three-week surveillance push led by the FFA with Kiribati among participants, conducting 61 vessel inspections and verifying 200+ detections to deter IUU fishing and other maritime crimes. Ocean Governance: The WTO’s Fisheries Subsidies Agreement is hailed as an environmental win, but the “Fish 2” talks could unravel if India, Indonesia, and the United States stall progress. Kiribati Tourism Data: Kiribati’s 2025 International Visitor Survey report (SPTO/TAK) estimates tourism’s 2025 economic impact at USD 12.8 million and maps visitor spending and satisfaction. Nuclear Justice: Kiribati renewed calls for nuclear justice at the UN, detailing ongoing harms from 1957–1962 tests on Kiritimati and urging accountability. Pacific Security & Infrastructure: The Quad plans port infrastructure in Fiji, raising questions about strategic competition in the Pacific.

Fisheries & Trade: The WTO’s Fisheries Subsidies Agreement is hailed as an environmental breakthrough for Pacific seas, but the next “Fish 2” push could unravel if India, Indonesia and the United States stall talks—raising the risk of continued harmful subsidies that fuel overcapacity and IUU fishing. Regional Enforcement: Pacific nations just wrapped Operation Tui Moana 2026, a three-week joint surveillance effort led by the FFA with Kiribati among participants, targeting illegal fishing and other maritime crimes across EEZs and adjacent high seas. Climate Accountability: A UN General Assembly resolution backs a 2025 ICJ advisory opinion, strengthening the legal case that states must act urgently on climate change and may face liability for harm—an important win for Vanuatu and Pacific islands on the front lines. Nuclear Justice: Kiribati and the Marshall Islands renewed calls at the UN for nuclear justice, citing the deadly legacy of testing in the Pacific and urging accountability. Tourism & Data: Kiribati’s International Visitor Survey 2025 report (via SPTO and TAK) shares spending and satisfaction snapshots to guide more evidence-based tourism planning. Energy Resilience (Region): Samoa’s 2026-27 budget sets aside major funding for fuel and energy resilience, including new solar farms and support for power and water utilities.

Pacific Fisheries Security: Operation Tui Moana 2026 wrapped up after three weeks of coordinated surveillance across the Western and Central Pacific, with Kiribati among participating countries; authorities carried out 61 vessel inspections and verified 200+ vessel detections to deter illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing and other maritime crimes. Nuclear Justice for Kiribati: Kiribati and the Marshall Islands renewed calls at the UN for nuclear justice, detailing the human cost of decades of testing in the Pacific, including illness and deaths linked to inadequate protection and warnings. Climate Accountability Win: A UN General Assembly resolution backed the International Court of Justice advisory opinion, strengthening the legal case that states must act urgently on climate change and can face liability for harm—an outcome supported by 141 countries including New Zealand. Kiribati–Fiji Ocean Livelihoods: Fiji and Kiribati signed an MoU to cooperate on sandfish (sea cucumber) aquaculture, aiming to grow livelihoods while protecting marine biodiversity and supporting a sustainable “blue economy.” Tourism Data for Planning: The Pacific Tourism Organisation and Kiribati’s tourism authority released the 2025 International Visitor Survey report, estimating tourism’s economic impact at USD 12.8 million and outlining visitor spending and satisfaction. Regional Policy Pressure: New Zealand’s Pacific visa fee cuts and longer default visas could reduce revenue by about $1–2 million a year, shifting funding pressure onto immigration systems. Climate-Linked Safety Gaps: Reporting highlights how back-to-back cyclones strain emergency shelters and leave women facing violence with fewer safe options when roads, clinics and phone networks fail.

Pacific Fisheries Security: Operation Tui Moana 2026 wrapped up after three weeks of coordinated surveillance across the Western and Central Pacific, with Kiribati among participating countries; authorities carried out 61 vessel inspections and flagged more than 200 detections to deter illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing. Climate Accountability (ICJ): The UN General Assembly backed the International Court of Justice advisory opinion on climate duties, with 141 votes in favour, strengthening the push for emissions cuts and climate-related human rights protections—an issue Vanuatu and Pacific islands have driven hard. Nuclear Justice: Kiribati and the Marshall Islands renewed calls at the UN for nuclear justice, citing the ongoing harms of decades-old testing and urging accountability for affected communities. Sustainable Ocean Food: Fiji and Kiribati signed an MOU to expand sandfish (sea cucumber) aquaculture, aiming to grow livelihoods while protecting marine biodiversity and supporting the Pacific Blue Economy. Tourism Data for Kiribati: The SPTO and Kiribati’s Tourism Authority released the 2025 International Visitor Survey report, detailing visitor spending and perceptions to guide greener, evidence-based tourism planning. Regional Mobility Costs: Kiribati-relevant Pacific visa fee cuts and longer default visas are expected to reduce revenue for governments, raising questions about funding for immigration systems. Geopolitics & Security Tech: A report from the Solomon Islands highlights backlash after Chinese police introduced fingerprinting and palm-print collection via a surveillance system—raising concerns about privacy and data rights.

Nature for Security: Europe is exploring “rewilding” and restoring wetlands and forests to make border terrain harder to cross, citing how soft ground and altered landscapes could slow mechanised advances. Nuclear Justice Push: Kiribati (with the Marshall Islands) renewed calls at the UN over the human cost of nuclear testing, saying Kiritimati residents faced “little protection” and ongoing health impacts. NPT Deadlock: The 2026 NPT Review Conference ended without consensus again, extending the next five-year cycle amid deep disarmament divisions. Fisheries Enforcement: Pacific nations completed Operation Tui Moana 2026, with Kiribati among participants, using patrols and surveillance to deter IUU fishing across EEZs and adjacent high seas. Climate Accountability at the UN: A UN General Assembly resolution backed the ICJ climate ruling, strengthening the legal case for urgent emissions cuts and climate-related human rights. Tourism Data: Kiribati’s 2025 International Visitor Survey report (with SPTO) estimates tourism’s economic impact at USD 12.8m and details visitor spending and satisfaction. Pacific Sandfish Aquaculture: Fiji and Kiribati signed an MOU to boost sandfish farming with environmental safeguards. Visa Fee Shock: New Zealand’s reduced Pacific visa fees and longer default visas could cut revenue by $1–2m a year, shifting funding pressure.